Josh Johnson-Not fully Recovered?

I just noticed ESPN's latest fantasy baseball rankings and, while not to much has changed since their last update, a major shocker to me was Josh Johnson. He has plummeted to number 76 amidst concerns about his recovery from a shoulder injury that cost him the last 3 weeks of his 2010 season. Many fantasy players, myself included, see Johnson as a potential Cy Young contender this year. I have searched around and failed to find anything more concrete about his current health. This is something to monitor closely in a couple of weeks when pitchers and catchers report for the opening of spring training.
Johnson had Tommy John surgery in August of 2007 and made it back to the majors in July of 2008. While he has had no issues since, it is worth noting that many pitchers have been out much longer after Tommy John surgery. While Johnson, coming off his second consecutive all star season and his first career era crown, could be a great number one fantasy starter, I would not draft him as my top starter until we know more. For any of you with extremely early fantasy drafts, you would be very smart to move Johnson down your draft board. There are just too many pitchers with less to worry about at this time. Stay tuned....................
As an update, mlb.com is reporting that Johnson is fully recovered and has already thrown a handful of bullpen sessions in Florida. However, I think fantasy owners may still want to monitor JJ closely. There is no doubt that this guy is as talented as any pitcher in baseball but he has to throw 200 innings in a season before I can put him in the category of elite. You can check out more from mlb.com here.

Evan Longoria -2011 Fantasy Preview

Evan Longoria is another hitter who saw a decrease in his production during the year of the pitcher. However, despite only posting 22 hrs, he still had a very solid fantasy line. Longo also started running more and set a career high in steals. He also increased his contact rate and batting average for the third straight season. So, what do I expect from Longo this year?
Check it out here

Ryan Braun-2011 Fantasy Preview

Entering last year, Ryan Braun looked to be on the verge of becoming a challenger to Albert Pujols status as the best hitter in fantasy baseball. After three superb seasons, to start his career, he was almost a unanimous top 5 pick in drafts. However, Braun hit a bump in the road in 2010. Struggling with consistency all year, he went through some long slumps and finished with the most disappointing line of his young career. However, he enters the 2011 season at the magical fantasy age of 27. So, what should fantasy baseball owners expect from this elite talent?
Click here for my full break down

All Reboud Team

Every year there are players that simply kill fantasy owners. They either seem poised for a breakout or they have a great track record of success. Then, just when you jump on board, they fall off the map or get hurt and kill your season. It happens to us all and it usually causes owners to rip their hair out and scream, "I will be damned if I ever draft that guy again!" I caution against this thought process though. Every year owners get burned by that and 2010 was a great example with Josh Hamilton leading the way. So, the fact is, you can either have the player burn you again by jumping off the bandwagon or you can stick with them usually at a discount. So, which players made my all rebound team? Check it out. Then let me know who I left off.

Hanley Ramirez-2011 Season Preview

A near unanimous 2nd pick in last year's fantasy drafts, Hanley Ramirez

disappointed his fantasy owners a bit last year. While he struggled at times and battled a few injuries his final line really was nothing to complain about. However, when you draft a guy at number 2 and he struggles to finish in the top 30 that can hurt your chances. While 2010 saw Miguel Cabrera pass him for the second spot in my overall rankings and also saw Troy Tulowitzki push him atop his position rankings, I certainly don't believe that fantasy baseball owners should drop Hanley too far after one slightly down season.

Full preview with 2011 projections

Keeper Big Board

I plan to make this a feature of my site. My Keeper Big Board will be updated year round on a regular basis. I plan to update it around once a month during the offseason and every couple of weeks in season. Rankings are based on standard 5x5 scoring formats. They will also be weighted based upon future seasons as well. The emphasis will be on the current season at 50%, with 2012 at 30% and 2013%. Player age is also provided in parenthesis.

1-Albert Pujols (31) 1b, Cardinals-The best player in the game period.
2-Miguel Cabrera (27) 1b, Tigers-Miggy has long been overshadowed by Pujols, that may not last much longer.
3-Hanley Ramirez (27) SS, Marlins-After a slightly down year, Hanley may feel he has something to prove in 2011.
4-Ryan Braun (27) OF, Brewers-If you are one of those owners down on Braun this year, you will be sorry by the end of 2011.
5-Robinson Cano (28) 2b, Yankees-The best player at a shallow position. Cano is now in his prime and there is no reason to expect much of a drop off from his spectacular 2010 line.
6-Evan Longoria (25) 3b, Rays-Longo is the youngest player in the top 10 and that means the upside is scary. At 25, it is reasonable to believe that he could still get a lot better. Future number one?
7-Adrian Gonzalez (28) 1b, Red Sox-Talk about a good trade, Gonzo was ranked 23rd on my last list. His skill set in Fenway is just frightening!
8-Troy Tulowitzki (26) SS, Rockies-The contract extension that Tulo signed means that he will play most of his career at Coors Field, that is awesome news for his keeper owners.
9-David Wright (28) 3b, Mets-Wright entered the prime of his career very well last year. He is one of the most reliable fantasy players in the game.
10-Joey Votto (27) 1b, Reds-The defending NL MVP should have little trouble picking up right where he left off.
11-Carl Crawford (29) OF, Red Sox-Crawford should have no trouble putting up great numbers in Fenway.
12-Felix Hernandez (24) SP, Mariners-King Felix is still only 24? No doubt that he is the top pitcher in a keeper format.
13-Carlos Gonzalez (25) OF, Rockies-CarGo broke out in a big way last year. Even if you encounter growing pains this year, he still has one of the best tool sets in the game.
14-Josh Hamilton (29) OF, Rangers-Hamilton is as good of a hitter as anybody in the game. Injuries are the only thing that keep him outside of the top 5 on this list.
15-Roy Halladay (33) SP, Phillies-You gotta be pretty special to rank this high on a keeper list at age 33, Doc is more than special. He is still the best pitcher in the game and we have seen no signs of decline.
16-Tim Lincecum (26) SP, Giants-The Freak looked human for a large part of last year, then late in the season, we saw the return of "Super Freak!"
17-Justin Upton (23) OF, Diamondbacks-The skill set is certainly there for Upton. The question is, when will the results show up? At just 23, I think owners need to be patient.
18-Mark Teixeira (30) 1b, Yankees-If you can handle the slow starts, Tex always puts up great lines eventually. How scary would it be if he finished April hitting 315 with 6 bombs?
19-Chase Utley (32) 2b, Phillies-Utley had a very rough year with injuries in 2010. If he can stay healthy, he still could push Cano as the best second basemen in baseball.
20-Adam Wainwright (29) SP, Cardinals-Waino often seems to be overlooked in fantasy baseball. His consistency, until late last year, is amazing.
21-Joe Mauer (27) C, Twins-Let's just accept that Mauer isn't a serious 30 homer threat and enjoy the things he does do well. A catcher that can win batting crowns is very valuable.
22-Jon Lester (27) SP, Red Sox-Lester may be one of the biggest winners when you talk about the Red Sox offseason moves.
23-Matt Kemp (26) OF, Dodgers-Which Kemp will show up in 2011?
24-Josh Johnson (27) SP, Marlins-Johnson has the potential to grow into a true fantasy ace.
25-Ryan Zimmerman (26) 3b, Nationals-Zimmerman is a solid fantasy producer that looks like a young Chipper Jones.
26-Justin Verlander (28) SP, Tigers-While Verlander is not a true fantasy ace, he is as good of a number 2 as you can find.
27-Matt Holliday (31) OF, Cardinals-Aside from Crawford, Holliday is the most consistent outfielder in fantasy baseball.
28-Dustin Pedroia (27) 2b, Red Sox-Pedroia could profit greatly from the new arrivals in Bean Town.
29-Clayton Kershaw (23) SP, Dodgers-Kershaw has all the makings of a future fantasy ace. It is just a matter of time before he breaks through his ceiling.
30-Prince Fielder (26) 1b, Brewers-Heading into free agency and his prime, Prince could on the brink of a huge season.
31-Alex Rodriguez (35) 3b, Yankees-Arod's best years are behind him and it is no longer realistic to expect him to play more than 150 games. When he is healthy, he can still produce at a very high level.
32-Ubaldo Jiminez (27) SP, Rockies-Don't be fooled by the second half last year, Jiminez is still a very solid pitcher just hitting his prime.
33-Ryan Howard (31) 1b, Phillies-When healthy, Howard is still an elite power hitter. Health may consider to be a big issue though.
34-Cliff Lee (32) SP, Phillies-Lee landed in a great spot and should be a solid number two fantasy pitcher for the next few seasons.
35-Jose Reyes (27) SS, Mets-If Reyes can stay on the field, he still has the ability to put up solid numbers. The Mets may reign him in a bit to try and keep him on the field more.
36-C.C. Sabathia (30) SP, Yankees-Sabathia should continue to produce at the top of the Yankee rotation.
37-Andrew McCutchen (24) OF, Pirates-McCutchen has a similar tool set to Carl Crawford. Focus has been an issue for him in Pittsburgh.
38-Zack Greinke (27) SP, Brewers-Greinke looks to take full advantage of improved run support and the weaker lineups that the NL offers.
39-Jason Heyward (21) OF, Braves-Heyward looks to be a future top 10 player. In an impressive rookie year he displayed the plate discipline of a veteran.
40-Kendry Morales (27) 1b, Angels-Look for Morales to push towards the top five at a very deep 1b position.
41-Ian Kinsler (28) 2b, Rangers-If Kinsler can stay on the field, he has superstar ability. Health has to be a huge concern though.
42-Joakim Soria (26) RP, Royals-Soria is the best closer in baseball.
43-Shin Soo Choo (28) OF, Indians-Choo is sometimes overlooked but seems reliable for a 300 average with 20 homers and 20 steals.
44-David Price (25) SP, Rays-Price is a future fantasy ace. The loss of a lot of run support could impact his win total in 2011.
45-Nelson Cruz (30) OF, Rangers-Cruz fills up a fantasy stat sheet. Health has been a concern, if he can overcome that, he has top 20 talent.
46-Matt Cain (26) SP, Giants-This may seem like a reach but Cain has been on the cusp for a few years and he is just getting into his prime.
47-Francisco Liriano (27) SP, Twins-Liriano is back and in should pick right up where he left off.
48-Buster Posey (24) C/1b, Giants-Coming off a rookie of the year award, Posey could be a couple of years away from pushing Mauer atop catcher rankings.
49-Mat Latos (23) SP, Padres-Fatigue seemed to set in at the end of last year. Heading into August, Latos was a Cy Young contender.
50-Delmon Young (25) OF, Twins-Coming off of a career year, Young might have entered his prime a little bit early.

Draft Day Decision SS (Elvis Andrus vs Starlin Castro)

Elvis Andrus is a young shortstop with a lot of upside who is gathering a lot of steam heading into the 2011 Fantasy Baseball Drafting Season. He has almost limitless upside in speed and looks like a player that could grow into another Jose Reyes type talent. Based upon his ADP on Mockdraftcentral.com, many fantasy owners are big believers in this future star. He is currently going number 66, which is in the middle of the 6th round for your standard 12 team league. Owners drafting Andrus are hoping that he continues to mature and leads the second tier of fantasy shortstops in 2011.
Starlin Castro is another young shortstop with superstar upside. With just half a season under his belt at the major league level, there is not much history to go off of but Castro did show that he is ready. It will likely take some time before we see just how good Castro will be but his upside is tremendous. His ADP on Mockdraftcentral is much lower than Andrus', currently 159 or early round 14 in 12 team leagues.
There is much more risk in drafting Castro than there is with Andrus. You will likely see more highs and lows with Castro. Both players have similar tools and talents but experience at the major league level is big. While Castro will likely outplay Andrus at times throughout the 2011 season, I doubt that he will be really close at the end of the year. However, that does not mean that Andrus is the better play here. Like a lot of draft day decisions, you have to look at who else is on the board at the time. Other players drafted around the 6th round on MDC include-Clayton Kershaw, Kendry Morales, and Justin Verlander. I would take any of those three along with Castro over Andrus and any other player around round 13-Ricky Romero, Johan Santana and Mike Stanton (I think Stanton will move up from this current position).


Projections-Andrus-282 avg, 5 hrs, 43 rbi, 41 sbs, 101 runs
Castro-285 avg, 7 hrs, 53 rbi, 26sbs, 78 runs

Franchise Arms

In keeper leagues, most owners realize, bats are much more valuable than arms. Good hitters are more reliable than good pitchers and they typically have a longer life span in keeper formats. That leads to a lack of truly reliable fantasy aces or "Franchise Arms." A franchise arm is a guy that you can take into the season and know that they will contribute very well in every pitching category that they are eligible for. They are extremely valuable just because there aren't enough of them to go around. Age and team are a major factor because, to make this list, you would have to be a player that an owner could expect to rely upon for the next two or three years.

Felix Hernandez, (24) SP, Mariners-Coming off of back to back Cy Young caliber seasons, there is no reason to believe that King Felix can't still get better. With better run support, he could approach 20 wins. The only long term concern for his owners would be the massive amount of innings that he has put up already.

Roy Halladay, (33) SP, Phillies-Halladay is at the top of his game and should be able to continue posting strong numbers for a few more years. His owners, in keeper leagues, would be smart to back him up with a good up and coming young starter. Eventually, Halladay will slow down.

Tim Lincecum, (26) SP, Giants-The Freak had a bit of a disappointing season in 2010, but, after back to back Cy Young awards expectations may have been a bit to high. He did lose a bit of velocity on his fastball last year, but, his performance late in the year and the playoffs showed that he was back to the dominant ace we all love. If his heater comes back in 2011 lookout.

Adam Wainwright, (29) SP, Cardinals-The only pitcher on this list without a Cy Young award to his credit, Waino definitely deserves a spot on this list. The runner up in the Cy Young race for the last two years, Waino has been as consistent as any pitcher in baseball. He looks to be entering into his prime now and should be in the discussion as the best pitcher in baseball.

Franchise Bats

This a topic I have been meaning to cover for a while now. Since, I play most of my fantasy baseball in keeper and dynasty leagues, this is a topic that I spend a lot of time thinking about. A franchise bat, is a hitter that you can count on to put up elite numbers for the next two to three years and has shown pretty good durability. No matter your league size or stat categories, I think that the number of true franchise hitters is pretty small. I don't necessarily look for a hitter that will help you in every category but they shouldn't kill you in any category unless they put up elite numbers in almost every other category. In a standard (5x5 stats) league, I am looking for a guy who puts up great numbers in at least four categories. History is another important factor because I think it is very dangerous to rely upon a guy who explodes for one year. We have seen that before with guys like B.J. Upton, Prince Fielder and others. If they don't have some history, to support their 2010 numbers, I just can't put them on this list.

Franchise Hitters

Albert Pujols (31 years old) 1b, Cardinals-no brainer, he is the standard. The only stat he doesn't thrive in is steals and he still gives double digits there

Miguel Cabrera (26) 1b, Tigers-Another no brainer here, Cabrera has been a first rounder for years and will continue to put up elite numbers across the board (except for sbs)

Hanley Ramirez (27) SS, Marlins-Hanley puts up great numbers in every category and is just entering the prime of his great career. He has been a top 5 pick for years and he should continue to fill up the stat sheet.

Robinson Cano (28) 2b, Yankees-While Cano has never been a first round draft pick before, he will be now. I like the journey that Cano took to get to this point. Aside from 2008, his numbers have gone up every year. He is now in his prime and should settle into the role of the best fantasy secondbasemen in the game.

Evan Longoria (25) 3b, Rays-Longo has already done a lot in his baseball career and is one of the best hitters in the game. What could make that better? How about the fact that, at age 25, we can expect a lot more. He is already the best fantasy player at his position and could become the best fantasy hitter in the game.

David Wright (28) 3b, Mets-After a down season in 2009, Wright rebounded with another stellar 2010 season. Another player in the prime of his career, Wright should continue to contribute across the board for fantasy owners.

Ryan Braun (27) OF, Brewers-Most players on this list would not complain about Braun's stat line in 2010. However, many Braun owners were very disappointed. I am certainly not off the bandwagon yet.

That is it for my list of Franchise bats. I would love to hear your list.

2011 Mock First Round

I have seen a few mock first rounds for 2011, that I disagree with, so I decided to go with my own. Just to make it easy, I am basing it on your standard 12 team league with basic scoring (5x5-runs, hrs, rbi, avg, sbs, wins, saves, era, whip and k's). So, here we go.

1-Albert Pujols, 1b Cardinals-Still no question that he should go here. His lead is shrinking though.

2-Miguel Cabrera, 1b Tigers-Miggy is just hitting his prime and we are probably yet to see his ceiling.

3-Hanley Ramirez, SS Marlins-The most reliable player at a slimming position.

4-Evan Longoria, 3b Rays-Longo is already the best player at his position and is still a couple years away from entering the prime of his career.

5-Carlos Gonzalez, OF Rockies-CarGo is a superstar in the making

6-Robinson Cano, 2b Yankees-The best second baseman on the board and Cano is just into his prime.

7-Joey Votto, 1b Reds-Coming off a break out MVP season, it will be interesting to see how Votto follows it up.

8-Troy Tulowitzki, SS Rockies-If Tulo plays 150 games, which is the biggest concern with him, I think he is better than Hanley.

9-Ryan Braun, OF Brewers-Consistency was a major issue for Braun in 2010. He definitely has first round ability and expect a big rebound this year.

10-David Wright, 3b Mets-Wright is in the prime of his career and should consistently put up solid numbers for the next several seasons.

11-Adrian Gonzalez, 1b Red Sox-The move to Fenway has moved Adrian way up the draft board. I think he certainly has first round talent.

12-Josh Hamilton, OF Rangers-Hamilton bounced back from a forgettable 09 season to win the MVP last year, despite missing most of the last month. If healthy, Hamilton is the most dangerous hitter in baseball.

Keeper Rankings-2011 Season (101-200)

101-Brett Gardner (27) OF, Yankees
102-Pedro Alvarez (24) 3b, Pirates
103-Jose Valverde (32) RP, Tigers
104-Matt Garza (27) SP, Rays
105-Adam Lind (27) OF, Blue Jays
106-Billy Butler (24) 1b, Royals
107-Jonathan Sanchez (28) SP, Giants
108-Andrew Bailey (26) RP, A's
109-Miguel Montero (27) C, Dbacks
110-Vladimir Guerrero (35) OF, Free Agent
111-Jimmy Rollins (32) SS, Phillies
112-Francisco Rodriguez (29) RP, Mets
113-Jose Bautista (30) 3b/OF, Blue Jays
114-Madison Bumgarner (21) SP, Giants
115-Roy Oswalt (33) SP, Phillies
116-Adam Jones (25) OF, Orioles
117-Aramis Ramirez (32) 3b, Cubs
118-James Loney (26) 1b, Dodgers
119-Ricky Nolasco (28) SP, Marlins
120-Torii Hunter (35) OF, Angels
121-Rafael Furcal (33) SS, Dodgers
122-Matt Wieters (24) C, Orioles
123-Aaron Hill (29) 2b, Blue Jays
124-Trevor Cahill (23) SP, A's
125-Curtis Granderson (30) OF, Yankees
126-Max Scherzer (26) SP, Tigers
127-Gavin Floyd (28) SP, White Sox
128-Chad Billingsley (26) SP, Dodgers
129-Bryce Harper (18) OF, Nationals
130-Pablo Sandoval (24) 1b/3b, Giants
131-Domonic Brown (23) OF, Phillies
132-Howard Kendrick (27) 2b, Angels
133-Ian Stewart (25) 2b/3b, Rockies
134-Paul Konerko (35) 1b, White Sox
135-Brett Anderson (23) SP, A's
136-Carlos Pena (32) 1b, Cubs
137-Johan Santana (32) SP, Mets
138-Brandon Morrow (26) SP, Blue Jays
139-Tim Hudson (35) SP, Braves
140-Denard Span (27) OF, Twins
141-Ricky Romero (26) SP, Blue Jays
142-Bobby Abreau (37) OF, Angels
143-Nick Swisher (30) 1b/OF, Yankees
144-Kelly Johnson (29) 2b, Dbacks
145-Michael Bourn (28) OF, Astros
146-Jesus Montero (21) C, Yankees
147-Colby Lewis (31) SP, Rangers
148-Javier Vazquez (33) SP, Marlins
149-Chone Figgins (33) 2b/3b, Mariners
150-Jeremy Hellickson (23) SP, Rays
151-Austin Jackson (24) OF, Tigers
152-Joe Nathan (36) RP, Twins
153-Mike Napoli (29) C/1b Angels
154-Johnny Cueto (25) SP, Reds
155-Alexie Ramirez (29) SS, White Sox
156-Starlin Castro (21) SS, Cubs
157-Shane Victorino (30) OF, Phillies
158-Jason Bay (32) OF, Mets
159-Huston Street (28) RP, Rockies
160-Shaun Marcum (29) SP, Brewers
161-Edison Volquez (27) SP, Reds
162-Drew Storen (23) RP, Nationals
163-Juan Pierre (33) OF, White Sox
164-Jeff Niemann (28) SP, Rays
165-Scott Rolen (35) 3b, Reds
166-Jair Jurrjens (25) SP, Braves
167-Drew Stubbs (26) OF, Reds
168-Gaby Sanchez (27) 1b, Marlins
169-David Ortiz (35) 1b, Red Sox
170-Vernon Wells (32) OF, Blue Jays
171-Mike Moustakas (22) 3b, Royals
172-Adam LaRoche (31) 1b, Orioles
173-Brennan Boesch (25) OF, Tigers
174-Rajai Davis (30) OF, Blue Jays
175-Kurt Suzuki (27) C, Athletics
176-Jason Kubel (28) OF, Twins
177-Geovany Soto (28) C, Cubs
178-Alfonso Soriano (35) OF, Cubs
179-Ervin Santana (28) SP, Angels
180-Aubrey Huff (34) 1b/OF, Giants
181-Francisco Cordero (35) RP, Reds
182-Aroldis Chapman (23) RP, Reds
183-Chris Perez (25) RP, Indians
184-Ike Davis (24) 1b, Mets
185-Chase Headley (26) 3b, Padres
186-Ted Lilly (35) SP, Dodgers
187-Chris Coghlan (25) OF, Marlins
188-Franklin Gutierrez (28) OF, Mariners
189-Matt Lindstrom (31) RP, Astros
190-Manny Ramirez (38) OF, Free Agent
191-Evan Meek (27) RP, Pirates
192-Leo Nunez (27) RP, Marlins
193-Dexter Fowler (25) OF, Rockies
194-Jose Tabata (22) OF, Pirates
195-Matt Capps (27) RP, Twins
196-Michael Cuddyer (32) 1b/3b/OF, Twins
197-Jorge Posada (39) C, Yankees
198-Marlon Byrd (33) OF, Cubs
199-Desmond Jennings (24) OF, Rays
200-Dustin Ackley (23) 2b, Mariners

Keeper Rankings-2011 Season

Over the next couple of weeks, I will cover my top 200 keepers in fantasy baseball. I assess my keeper value based on what I expect from a player over the next three seasons (60% for next year, 30% for 2012 and 10% for 2013). I have also provided each players age in parenthesis.  These rankings are based on value for your standard 5x5 stats (runs, hrs, rbi, avg, sb, wins, k's, era, whip and saves).

Top 20 Keepers
Keeper Rankings 21-50
Keeper Rankings 51-100

Red Sox Acquire A-Gone and Crawford

The baseball world and, for my interest, the fantasy baseball world was put on notice by the Red Sox this week. It started with a trade for Adrian Gonzalez and ended with the signing of Carl Crawford. What does that do to the fantasy value of the players involved?

Find out here

Miguel Cabrera (age 26) 2011 Fantasy Preview

After his most complete season in the majors, Miguel Cabrera finds himself in the discussion for the top pick in fantasy drafts for 2011. Even though I don't put him there just yet, I do think that it is now a matter of time before Cabrera passes Albert Pujols for the top spot in all of fantasy baseball. With the improvements that the Tigers have made this offseason, Cabrera is even more dangerous.

2011 projection

Albert Pujols, 1b Cardinals (Age 31)-2011 Preview

Once again, Albert Pujols leads the way in my 2011 rankings for first basemen and all keeper players. How much longer should fantasy owners expect Albert to be the king of baseball and what type of numbers should his owners expect from him in the upcoming season?

Read more

Fantasy Baseball Rankings-2011

Here are my position rankings for the 2011 Fantasy Baseball Season. These rankings are based on player values for the 2011 season only. Rankings take into account a players age, lineup, track record, team and injury potential. Rankings are also based on the standard 5x5 scoring system that most leagues use (avg, hrs, rbi, sbs, runs, wins, saves, k's, era and whip).
Catchers
First Base
Second Base
Third Base
Shortstop
Outfield
Starting Pitchers
Closers