Thursday, December 30, 2010

Draft Day Decision SS (Elvis Andrus vs Starlin Castro)



Elvis Andrus is a young shortstop with a lot of upside who is gathering a lot of steam heading into the 2011 Fantasy Baseball Drafting Season. He has almost limitless upside in speed and looks like a player that could grow into another Jose Reyes type talent. Based upon his ADP on Mockdraftcentral.com, many fantasy owners are big believers in this future star. He is currently going number 66, which is in the middle of the 6th round for your standard 12 team league. Owners drafting Andrus are hoping that he continues to mature and leads the second tier of fantasy shortstops in 2011.
Starlin Castro is another young shortstop with superstar upside. With just half a season under his belt at the major league level, there is not much history to go off of but Castro did show that he is ready. It will likely take some time before we see just how good Castro will be but his upside is tremendous. His ADP on Mockdraftcentral is much lower than Andrus', currently 159 or early round 14 in 12 team leagues.
There is much more risk in drafting Castro than there is with Andrus. You will likely see more highs and lows with Castro. Both players have similar tools and talents but experience at the major league level is big. While Castro will likely outplay Andrus at times throughout the 2011 season, I doubt that he will be really close at the end of the year. However, that does not mean that Andrus is the better play here. Like a lot of draft day decisions, you have to look at who else is on the board at the time. Other players drafted around the 6th round on MDC include-Clayton Kershaw, Kendry Morales, and Justin Verlander. I would take any of those three along with Castro over Andrus and any other player around round 13-Ricky Romero, Johan Santana and Mike Stanton (I think Stanton will move up from this current position).


Projections-Andrus-282 avg, 5 hrs, 43 rbi, 41 sbs, 101 runs
Castro-285 avg, 7 hrs, 53 rbi, 26sbs, 78 runs

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