The Under-Whelming Rookie Class of 2011

Well, after last year's historically strong rookie class, it only makes sense that this year's class would leave a lot to be desired. We will see a lot of people going crazy and over-paying in this year's drafts for guys like Dominic Brown, Jeremy Hellickson, Mike Moustakis, Dustin Ackley and others. While all of these players, as well as other rookies, will get an opportunity to contribute on a major league stage this year, I would not expect any of them to be major players on the fantasy scene.
After last year, it is easy for fantasy owners to raise expectations for rookies. In the year of the pitcher, rookies shined through extremely bright as well. In 2010 we saw starring debuts by many young stars. Buster Posey, the NL ROY, almost single handedly carried the Giants offense. Jason Heyward showed flashes of brilliance, at age 20. Neftali Feliz, Jamie Garcia, Wade Davis and others shined all put together strong debuts on the mound. At times it looked as if Steven Strasburg was set to take his place as MLB's best pitcher, before a season ending Tommy John Surgery. Mike Stanton and Gabby Sanchez providing very strong debut seasons for the Marlins. I could really go on forever but I am sure you get the point by now. Last year was something special from a rookie standpoint.
It is important to realize what rookies were typically known for before last year when evaluating this years rookie class. While we have occasionally seen stars step right in and pretty much dominate from day one, it is not common to see multiple rookies do this in the same season. While there are some rookies that could really provide quality numbers this year, I don't see any one guy stepping up and dominating. This year's class should provide a return to normalcy with young stars that show flashes but over-all just struggle with consistency. So, with that said, here are some rookies (in no particular order) that I think will be worth a watch this year. I have also provided my projections.

1-Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Rays 181 innings, 12 wins, 4.13 era, 1.24 whip, 170 k's

2-Freddie Freeman, 1b, Braves 546 abs, 283 avg, 17 hrs, 80 rbi, 5 sbs, 72 runs

3-Craig Kimbrel, RP, Braves 63 innings, 3 wins, 27 saves, 2.84 era, 1.14 whip, 71 k's

4-Jake McGee, RP, Rays 53 innings, 2 wins, 16 saves, 3.49 era, 1.26 whip, 51 k's

5-Aroldis Chapman, RP, Reds 62 innings, 4 wins, 14 saves, 2.63 era, 1.11 whip, 79 k's

6-Jesus Montero, C, Yankees 263 abs, 269 avg, 11 hrs, 41 rbi, 1 sb, 33 runs

7-J.P. Arencibia, C, Blue Jays 453 abs, 254 avg, 17 hrs, 58 rbi, 0 sbs, 47 runs

8-Mike Moustakis, 3b, Royals 292 abs, 271 avg, 14 hrs, 48 rbi, 3 sbs, 42 runs

9-Domonic Brown, OF, Phillies 416 abs, 261 avg, 17 hrs, 58 rbi, 14 sbs, 53 runs

10-Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays 337 abs, 273 avg, 5 hrs, 27 rbi, 21 sbs, 46 runs

11-Peter Borjous, OF, Angels 516 abs, 268 avg, 8 hrs, 48 rbi, 28 sbs, 71 runs

12-Kyle Drabek, SP, Blue Jays 178 innings, 11 wins, 4.36 era, 1.33 whip, 143 k's

13-Michael Pineda, SP, Mariners 104 innings, 6 wins, 4.11 era, 1.29 whip, 87 k's

14-Chris Sale, SP/RP, White Sox 142 innings, 12 wins, 3.64 era, 1.29 whip, 121 k's

15-Brandon Belt, 1b, Giants 261 abs, 284 avg, 11 hrs, 31 rbi, 2 sbs, 27 runs

It is important to note position battles to watch with some of these guys. The ones that seem to be locked into a major league job this year are Hellickson, Freeman, Kimbrel, Borjous, Drabek, Sale, Chapman and Arencipia. It is worth noting that I am expecting Kimbrel to close in Atlanta and I think that Chapman will take over that role in Cincy as well. Belt, Jennings, Moustakis and a few others could see more time in the majors with a strong showing in Spring Training.
There are some good keepers in this group but it just seems like it will take them longer to develop than last year's class. Long term, Brown, Hellickson, Sale, Montero, Moustakis, Freeman and Belt could develop into real fantasy stars. Also, there is a reason that Dustin Ackley was left off this list, while he is a top prospect, I just don't see him contributing a whole lot fantasy wise.

Starting Pitcher Rankings with Projections

When drafting, fantasy owners will often either go with an ace early in the draft or load up later in the draft. Both strategies can work but, if you wait it is even more essential to make the correct selections. There is real value in drafting one of the top dogs in the first few rounds and then waiting several rounds to fill out your rotation. This is the strategy that I usually go with. The depth and general lack of consistency in pitchers makes the few reliable arms even more valuable. With that said, check out my rankings and projections here.

Outfield Rankings with Projections

The fantasy outfield is as loaded now as it has been in years. Fantasy owners should have no trouble finding at least a couple of hitters that can give them positive production across the board. This position provides a good blend of reliability, break out candidates, sleepers and bounce back stars. There is also an excess of young stars that have yet to hit their prime, providing a very strong future for the depth of this position. For those in keeper formats, there are also many very exciting prospects that are really getting close to the big league level. To say the least, the future of the fantasy baseball outfield is very bright. So, check out my projections and rankings here.

Shortstop Rankings with Projections

Entering your 2011 draft, one thing that had better be at the front of your mind is position scarcity. When I was actually trying to project the short stop position for the upcoming season it hit me that this position could decide leagues. There are stars that are developing, such as Elvis Andrus, Ian Desmond and Starlin Castro. However, there are even more former stars that are clearly past their prime and on a clear decline (Miguel Tejada, Derrek Jeter, Jimmy Rollins, and Rafael Furcal). I think that there is a good chance that more fantasy owners will have confidence in their catcher this year than their shortstop. That is simply unheard of in fantasy sports.
For those in keeper leagues, the immediate future is not that much brighter either. There are not many stud prospects coming up at shortstop in the near future. Plus, I think that it will still be a few years before we start to see the best of Andrus and Castro. The value, in keeper formats, for Troy Tulowitzki, Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes is very high right now because there is no telling when the next wave of stud shortstops will be here.
For my complete rankings and projections, click here.

Third Base Rankings with Projections

This seems to be a transition year for the hot corner position in fantasy baseball. With aging stars like Rolen, Arod, Aramis Ramirez and Chipper and young stars like Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, Pedro Alvarez along with a hot prospect like Mike Moustakis 2011 looks like the year of turn over. It is a top heavy position with a lot of questions after the top guys go off the board. Along with short stop, I consider third as the most unreliable position in fantasy baseball this season. In fact, I would go so far as to say that any owner that doesn't have either of these positions filled by the end of the second round is a long shot to win their league. Check out my full third base projections here.

Second Base Rankings and Projections

Second base is a position that is very top heavy but deeper than most fantasy players seem to think. After Robinson Cano's breakout year and the injuries that held down Dustin Pedroia, Chase Utley and (once again) Ian Kinsler, there is now a debate as to whether or not Utley is still the class of his position. While you could go back and forth on this, I think it is safe to say that Cano has joined Utley's level. Pedroia and Kinsler both have the ability to breakout and join the top tier of second basemen as well. While Kinsler comes with injury baggage, Pedroia has a very reckless style that could scare off some fantasy owners. All four these guys would be great to have at second base in 2011, but, I think something happens after they are all off the draft board. The drop off after these guys is significant. It appears that many fantasy owners are willing to overpay for 2010 numbers that I don't expect to see repeated in 2011. To view my complete second base projections, click here.

First Base Rankings and Projections

First base is an easy position to fill in fantasy baseball because it is the deepest position in the game. However, don't sleep on getting the right guy to fill first in your lineup. While first base is really deep, it gets shallow pretty quickly. In most drafts, you will see anywhere from 10-12 firstbaseman taken in the first 50-60 picks. This year, you are also looking at 4 going in the first round of most twelve team drafts. This position provides a major portion of most lineup's power and quite a few firstbasemen also provide reliable averages as well. In fact, the only major category you won't fill with first base is steals, although a handful of players will provide double figure steals. So, who are you rolling with at first base this year? Check out my rankings and projections here.

Catcher Rankings and Projections

The catching position has always been a weakness in fantasy baseball and 2010 was a good example of that, when there was not a single catcher in the season's top 100 rankings. However, 2010 did see some new blood that brought a little more depth to this thin position. Buster Posey (pictured here) won the N.L. Rookie of the Year and before getting hurt, Carlos Santana also had a solid debut over in the American League. Both these young blue chip prospects showed that they were ready for the show in a big way. While the catching position is still not deep, it could be argued that it is deeper than it has been in a very long time. Matt Weiters, still only 24 years old, has been a bust so far but he has gotten better. For my rankings and projections, click here.

Troy Tulowitzki-2011 Fantasy Preview

Troy Tulowitzki is a very hot commodity heading into the 2011 season. The show that he put on last September was nothing short of amazing and fantasy owners are salivating over the numbers that he could put up over the coarse of a full healthy season. However, over the coarse of his career, Tulo has really struggled to stay healthy. In four full seasons at the Major League level he has only exceeded 150 games played twice. There is certainly a major risk reward with this near unanimous first rounder. The risk is, you only get around 350 abs from your number one pick and, with no depth at shortstop, you have no way of replacing him. The reward is also pretty clear, if you get 600 abs from Tulowitki, you have a good chance of having the best player in baseball. While he will likely never put up numbers like he did last September again, he is just entering his prime and still has room to grow into an even better all around player.
Click here for my projections

Adrian Gonzalez-2011 Fantasy Preview

For Adrian Gonzalez owners, in keeper formats, the trade to Boston was a dream come true. For the past several year, Gonzalez has been one of Major League Baseball's most prolific home run threats, in one of the hardest parks to homer in. Now, the guy who has hit 107 home runs over the last three seasons, with only 35 of those coming at home, takes his act to hitter friendly Fenway Park. Add on to that the fact that, at age 28, he is in the prime of his career and there is plenty of reason to anticipate a career season from Gonzalez. If you are in a keeper league, this is just not the time to target a trade for Gonzalez. If you play in a one year league, and want a part of Gonzalez, you should target him in the second half of the first round. Simply put, the cat is out of the bag. We all know expect Adrian to excel in Boston. Check out my full projections here.

Robinson Cano-2011 Fantasy Preview

Coming off of the best year of his career, Cano enters 2011 as my top rated second basemen and one of the best keepers in baseball. After only missing 6 games in the past 4 seasons, he also provides the kind of reliability that is very hard to find in fantasy baseball. With the Yankee lineup aging and many of their stars on the decline, will this impact Cano's ability to follow up on the best year of his career? Click here for a complete projection. If you have any thoughts on Cano, let's hear your projections. Also, check back ofton, in the next couple of weeks I plan to preview the rest of the stars on my Keeper Big Board.

Evan Longoria -2011 Fantasy Preview

Evan Longoria is another hitter who saw a decrease in his production during the year of the pitcher. However, despite only posting 22 hrs, he still had a very solid fantasy line. Longo also started running more and set a career high in steals. He also increased his contact rate and batting average for the third straight season. So, what do I expect from Longo this year?
Check it out here

Ryan Braun-2011 Fantasy Preview

Entering last year, Ryan Braun looked to be on the verge of becoming a challenger to Albert Pujols status as the best hitter in fantasy baseball. After three superb seasons, to start his career, he was almost a unanimous top 5 pick in drafts. However, Braun hit a bump in the road in 2010. Struggling with consistency all year, he went through some long slumps and finished with the most disappointing line of his young career. However, he enters the 2011 season at the magical fantasy age of 27. So, what should fantasy baseball owners expect from this elite talent?
Click here for my full break down

All Reboud Team

Every year there are players that simply kill fantasy owners. They either seem poised for a breakout or they have a great track record of success. Then, just when you jump on board, they fall off the map or get hurt and kill your season. It happens to us all and it usually causes owners to rip their hair out and scream, "I will be damned if I ever draft that guy again!" I caution against this thought process though. Every year owners get burned by that and 2010 was a great example with Josh Hamilton leading the way. So, the fact is, you can either have the player burn you again by jumping off the bandwagon or you can stick with them usually at a discount. So, which players made my all rebound team? Check it out. Then let me know who I left off.

Hanley Ramirez-2011 Season Preview

A near unanimous 2nd pick in last year's fantasy drafts, Hanley Ramirez

disappointed his fantasy owners a bit last year. While he struggled at times and battled a few injuries his final line really was nothing to complain about. However, when you draft a guy at number 2 and he struggles to finish in the top 30 that can hurt your chances. While 2010 saw Miguel Cabrera pass him for the second spot in my overall rankings and also saw Troy Tulowitzki push him atop his position rankings, I certainly don't believe that fantasy baseball owners should drop Hanley too far after one slightly down season.

Full preview with 2011 projections

Draft Day Decision SS (Elvis Andrus vs Starlin Castro)

Elvis Andrus is a young shortstop with a lot of upside who is gathering a lot of steam heading into the 2011 Fantasy Baseball Drafting Season. He has almost limitless upside in speed and looks like a player that could grow into another Jose Reyes type talent. Based upon his ADP on Mockdraftcentral.com, many fantasy owners are big believers in this future star. He is currently going number 66, which is in the middle of the 6th round for your standard 12 team league. Owners drafting Andrus are hoping that he continues to mature and leads the second tier of fantasy shortstops in 2011.
Starlin Castro is another young shortstop with superstar upside. With just half a season under his belt at the major league level, there is not much history to go off of but Castro did show that he is ready. It will likely take some time before we see just how good Castro will be but his upside is tremendous. His ADP on Mockdraftcentral is much lower than Andrus', currently 159 or early round 14 in 12 team leagues.
There is much more risk in drafting Castro than there is with Andrus. You will likely see more highs and lows with Castro. Both players have similar tools and talents but experience at the major league level is big. While Castro will likely outplay Andrus at times throughout the 2011 season, I doubt that he will be really close at the end of the year. However, that does not mean that Andrus is the better play here. Like a lot of draft day decisions, you have to look at who else is on the board at the time. Other players drafted around the 6th round on MDC include-Clayton Kershaw, Kendry Morales, and Justin Verlander. I would take any of those three along with Castro over Andrus and any other player around round 13-Ricky Romero, Johan Santana and Mike Stanton (I think Stanton will move up from this current position).


Projections-Andrus-282 avg, 5 hrs, 43 rbi, 41 sbs, 101 runs
Castro-285 avg, 7 hrs, 53 rbi, 26sbs, 78 runs

Red Sox Acquire A-Gone and Crawford

The baseball world and, for my interest, the fantasy baseball world was put on notice by the Red Sox this week. It started with a trade for Adrian Gonzalez and ended with the signing of Carl Crawford. What does that do to the fantasy value of the players involved?

Find out here

Miguel Cabrera (age 26) 2011 Fantasy Preview

After his most complete season in the majors, Miguel Cabrera finds himself in the discussion for the top pick in fantasy drafts for 2011. Even though I don't put him there just yet, I do think that it is now a matter of time before Cabrera passes Albert Pujols for the top spot in all of fantasy baseball. With the improvements that the Tigers have made this offseason, Cabrera is even more dangerous.

2011 projection

Albert Pujols, 1b Cardinals (Age 31)-2011 Preview

Once again, Albert Pujols leads the way in my 2011 rankings for first basemen and all keeper players. How much longer should fantasy owners expect Albert to be the king of baseball and what type of numbers should his owners expect from him in the upcoming season?

Read more