The Under-Whelming Rookie Class of 2011

Well, after last year's historically strong rookie class, it only makes sense that this year's class would leave a lot to be desired. We will see a lot of people going crazy and over-paying in this year's drafts for guys like Dominic Brown, Jeremy Hellickson, Mike Moustakis, Dustin Ackley and others. While all of these players, as well as other rookies, will get an opportunity to contribute on a major league stage this year, I would not expect any of them to be major players on the fantasy scene.
After last year, it is easy for fantasy owners to raise expectations for rookies. In the year of the pitcher, rookies shined through extremely bright as well. In 2010 we saw starring debuts by many young stars. Buster Posey, the NL ROY, almost single handedly carried the Giants offense. Jason Heyward showed flashes of brilliance, at age 20. Neftali Feliz, Jamie Garcia, Wade Davis and others shined all put together strong debuts on the mound. At times it looked as if Steven Strasburg was set to take his place as MLB's best pitcher, before a season ending Tommy John Surgery. Mike Stanton and Gabby Sanchez providing very strong debut seasons for the Marlins. I could really go on forever but I am sure you get the point by now. Last year was something special from a rookie standpoint.
It is important to realize what rookies were typically known for before last year when evaluating this years rookie class. While we have occasionally seen stars step right in and pretty much dominate from day one, it is not common to see multiple rookies do this in the same season. While there are some rookies that could really provide quality numbers this year, I don't see any one guy stepping up and dominating. This year's class should provide a return to normalcy with young stars that show flashes but over-all just struggle with consistency. So, with that said, here are some rookies (in no particular order) that I think will be worth a watch this year. I have also provided my projections.

1-Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Rays 181 innings, 12 wins, 4.13 era, 1.24 whip, 170 k's

2-Freddie Freeman, 1b, Braves 546 abs, 283 avg, 17 hrs, 80 rbi, 5 sbs, 72 runs

3-Craig Kimbrel, RP, Braves 63 innings, 3 wins, 27 saves, 2.84 era, 1.14 whip, 71 k's

4-Jake McGee, RP, Rays 53 innings, 2 wins, 16 saves, 3.49 era, 1.26 whip, 51 k's

5-Aroldis Chapman, RP, Reds 62 innings, 4 wins, 14 saves, 2.63 era, 1.11 whip, 79 k's

6-Jesus Montero, C, Yankees 263 abs, 269 avg, 11 hrs, 41 rbi, 1 sb, 33 runs

7-J.P. Arencibia, C, Blue Jays 453 abs, 254 avg, 17 hrs, 58 rbi, 0 sbs, 47 runs

8-Mike Moustakis, 3b, Royals 292 abs, 271 avg, 14 hrs, 48 rbi, 3 sbs, 42 runs

9-Domonic Brown, OF, Phillies 416 abs, 261 avg, 17 hrs, 58 rbi, 14 sbs, 53 runs

10-Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays 337 abs, 273 avg, 5 hrs, 27 rbi, 21 sbs, 46 runs

11-Peter Borjous, OF, Angels 516 abs, 268 avg, 8 hrs, 48 rbi, 28 sbs, 71 runs

12-Kyle Drabek, SP, Blue Jays 178 innings, 11 wins, 4.36 era, 1.33 whip, 143 k's

13-Michael Pineda, SP, Mariners 104 innings, 6 wins, 4.11 era, 1.29 whip, 87 k's

14-Chris Sale, SP/RP, White Sox 142 innings, 12 wins, 3.64 era, 1.29 whip, 121 k's

15-Brandon Belt, 1b, Giants 261 abs, 284 avg, 11 hrs, 31 rbi, 2 sbs, 27 runs

It is important to note position battles to watch with some of these guys. The ones that seem to be locked into a major league job this year are Hellickson, Freeman, Kimbrel, Borjous, Drabek, Sale, Chapman and Arencipia. It is worth noting that I am expecting Kimbrel to close in Atlanta and I think that Chapman will take over that role in Cincy as well. Belt, Jennings, Moustakis and a few others could see more time in the majors with a strong showing in Spring Training.
There are some good keepers in this group but it just seems like it will take them longer to develop than last year's class. Long term, Brown, Hellickson, Sale, Montero, Moustakis, Freeman and Belt could develop into real fantasy stars. Also, there is a reason that Dustin Ackley was left off this list, while he is a top prospect, I just don't see him contributing a whole lot fantasy wise.

mlb.com's top 50 Prospect Countdown Show

For those of you who haven't seen it yet, mlb.com and MLB network unveiled their top 50 prospect countdown for the 2011 season. If you missed it, you can view it here. From a fantasy perspective the biggest thing that I got out of the countdown is just how special last year's rookie class was. While some guys do come with a good deal of hype for this season (Hellickson, Moustakis, Brown, Ackley, Freeman and Belt), I just don't see anybody having the major impact that many rookies did last year. The 2010 rookie class was the best I have seen in 20 years of following baseball.
The 2011 class is more in line with what we are used to seeing. There are some very exciting players, from a fantasy stand point, but they all come with some major questions. While I am not ready to go over my rookie rankings yet, I think I have settled on the top of my class. In no particular order, guys that I see topping my rankings will be Hellickson, Brown and Freeman. Dustin Ackley and Kyle Drabek are two that I am starting to like less than many fantasy owners. Both Ackley and Drabek should have long successful careers but I don't see either ever having a significant fantasy impact. Ackley seems to profile as a 15 hr (or less in Seattle) 280 average major league hitter. Drabek looks like a 3rd starter in a good major league rotation, at best.
Well, that was my immediate reaction. What is your opinion?

Prospect Preview

While I like to think that I follow prospects pretty closely and know who the "big guys" are, I can't really call myself a prospect expert by any means. Since I don't have the resources to watch prospects on a regular basis, research is the only way that I have to evaluate prospects. There are many sources online that cover prospects but many are very unreliable.
For those owners that compete in leagues with minor leagues, don't sleep on prospects because the hype machine in fantasy baseball is making them increasingly more valuable. Look at how popular guys like Strasburg and Heyward were in last year's drafts. With the return on investment that these young stars provided, imagine what the hype machine will be for a guy like Bryce Harper. In fact, I own the rights to Harper in my dynasty league and I have already turned away some pretty ridiculous offers. As much as I could get for him now, I think it will be twice as much when he gets close his big league debut.
I will go over some 2011 rookie rankings here in a couple of weeks. In the mean time, I will provide some sites that I reference for prospect analysis.

Baseball America-is probably my favorite. They typically release their top 100 prospect rankings around late February and are typically one of the most accurate.

mlb.com also has descent rankings up by position.
Catchers
Firstbase
Secondbase
Shortstop
Thirdbase
Outfield
RHP
LHP